|When||Predicted Event||Who Predicted||When Predicted||Result|
|1 October 1998||Major US banks Morgan Guaranty, Chase Manhattan and Bankers Trust are sent reeling as several Asia-Pacific financial institutions renege on Derivatives contracts. A banking chain-reaction weakens the entire banking infrastructure to the breaking point. Experts fear collapse if even minor Y2k problems arise.||anonymous||1 June 1998||Close: I have to give partial credit on this. The LTCM hedge fund (i.e. derivatives) operated by Nobel laureates Merton and Scholes had to be bailed out in late September at a cost of billions, the stock market has dropped precipitously, and there are headlines about the precarious situation of global finance. There has been no reneging as far as I know, but the Asians are mad that crony-capitalism was used for U.S. firm LTCM, while they have been criticised for the same sort of action.|
|November 1998||Y2k featured in a weekly TV news magazine.||arankin||19 May 1998||
Y2k was the lead story on the McLaughlin Group
12 July 1998
Also the lead story on 60 Minutes (CBS), 29 November 1998.
|November 1998||Y2k disaster movies come out; Individual politicians will begin to accuse each other of not doing enough and "letting this potential disaster happen". Net effect: Y2k will begin to be discussed by "the man/woman on the street". Great controversy but little action by populace.||Albert E. Ron||19 May 1998||Wrong: but see November 1999 below|
|November 1998||The newsgroup comp.software.year-2000 is split because of too much traffic.||DS||13 July 1998||Correct: comp.software.year-2000.tech passed in USENET voting in early October 1998.|
|December 1998||Bank Runs begin in earnest as people withdraw cash for Christmas holiday, and don't stop withdrawing. Fed imposes monthly cap of 20% of 11/1998 bank balance for withdrawals of over $10,000. Articles on Gold become common, and Gold rises to $400 an ounce.||Sherm S.||30 May 1998||Wrong|
|31 December 1998||Various posters to comp.software.year-2000 have predicted the DJIA for Y2k - 1.||Various||7 September 1998||Interestingly, all the guesses were too low! The winner was carey.fisher_at_gecm.com who guessed 9250, actual was 9274.64.|
|1 January 1999||One or more power plant outages due to 'computer' problems. Y2k may or may not be mentioned, but the reason stated will be that the system could not properly handle the roll-over to 1999 (and we'll know why).||Anonymous||5 October 1998||Wrong|
|4 January 1999||The launch of the European currency, with all its built in Y2K errors, crashes markets around the world. Trading in stock, bond, and currency markets around the world is suspended indefinitely.||Anonymous||24 September 1998||Wrong|
|19 January 1999||President Clinton devotes at least 5 minutes of his State of the Union speech to the Y2k problem.||Hal F.||19 May 1998||Close: 1 Minute|
|19 January 1999||President Gore devotes at least 5 minutes of his State of the Union speech to the Y2k problem.||Anonymous||15 September 1998||Wrong|
|29 & 31 January 1999||Year-end dates for K Mart and Wal Mart. Cash registers crash, and many Americans are no longer able to buy pants.||Anonymous||5 October 1998||Wrong|
|January 1999||Gold will trade up the daily limit for three consecutive days on fallout from Euro introduction and building fears of financial collapse due to Y2k.||RMeder||15 October 1998||Wrong|
|15 February 1999||Dow falls to 5000 following panic selling because of computer failures when the DJIA rolled past 10000.||James Bryant||10 November 1998||Wrong|
|February 1999||Some companies with a January 31, 2000 year-end will not be able to roll over to their next fiscal year. Reports of the problem will begin hitting the news during the first week of February.||Jo Anne Slaven||18 May 1998||Wrong|
|March 1999||GAO reports on the status of government agencies (specifically, the Department of Defense) on Y2K remediation become Top Secret and are no longer shared with the public.||Beth Roberts||19 Nov 1998||Wrong|
|1 April 1999||Canadian government fiscal year: One or more accounting systems will not be able to roll over.||Ron Richardson||19 May 1998||Wrong|
|1 April 1999||Japan, New York State (and Canada) fiscal year: Government accounting systems will start to fail. Stock piling will start on widespread basis. Generators, wood burning stoves, and open pollinated non-hybrid seeds, will be virtually unattainable.||Craig Jones||24 March 1999||Wrong|
|1 April 1999||[...] On April 1, 1999 we will all watch anxiously as the governments of Japan and Canada, as well as the state of New York, begin their 1999-2000 fiscal year; at that moment, the speculation about Y2K will end, and we will have tangible evidence of whether governmental computer systems work or not. [...]||Ed Yourdon||14 July 1998||Wrong|
|9 April 1999||IBM Julian date 99099 will pass with no significant problems reported (no blackouts, riots, or bankruptcies caused by the date alone).||Arnold Trembley||9 February 1999||Correct|
|15 April 1999||Federal Government passes law to draft programmers or at least mandate that current Federal employees must remain in service to the government for the duration.||Bob Benson||20 May 1998||Wrong|
|April 1999||First reported case of 'Millenium Dysfunctional Disorder' - i.e. the inability to function in society as a result of fears about the impending Y2K transition.||Eric Suchanek||1 September 1998||Almost Correct: World Health Report: Mental Health Experts See Increase In Millennium Madness [Thanks to S.Peckinpaugh for the link --bks]|
|April 1999||US government stops issuing public reports of progress.||tek-nerd||28 November 1998||Wrong|
|May 1999||Camping supplies, generators, canning supplies, and food dehydrators will be virtually gone from the shelves of department stores.||Jen W.||13 January 1999||Wrong: Some models of Honda generators are reported to be in short supply, but all of these items are available.|
|June 1999||Media begins coverage of hoarding. Cash withdrawals from banks increase. Inflation and interest rates increase. Stock and bond markets decrease. Gold prices increase. Panic and shortages by September.||RT||18 May 1998||Mostly wrong: Gold is at a 20 year low. The Stock Market is at new highs. Inflation is still under control. The Fed did raise interest rates slightly. News coverage of 'hoarding' does not seem to be on the rise (though that is hard to measure). No data on cash withdrawals.|
|1 July 1999||Australian businesses and governments (federal and state) experience computer crashes and malfunctions due to the roll over to the Australian financial year 1999 - 2000.||Bev Armstrong||23 December 1998||Wrong|
|1 July 1999||Business as usual, no visible disruptions.||Alan Dechert||8 April 1999||Correct|
|31 July 1999||Predicted event: Fringe apocalyptic groups gain visibility at the start of July drawing connections between GPS rollover, Y2K, and Nostradamus' infamous 7th month of 1999 prophecy. An international or astronomical event triggers a mass suicide (cf. Heaven's gate). Awareness about Y2K is raised as a consequence, but only as a lunatic fringe issue. By 31 July, mention of Nostradamus' prophecy is quietly dropped from apocalyptic propaganda, and these groups fade back into obscurity.||Terry||11 November 1998||Wrong|
|July 1999||The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) will report that some of nation's nuclear power plants may not be adequately prepared for the millenium change. The NRC will then request massive emergency funding from the federal government to hire technical professions to help remedy the problem. In response to that and if it hasn't already done so, the federal goverment will implement a military-style draft of technical professionals to work on the problem.||tim||29 November 1998||Close: The NRC reported on 8 July 1999 that 68 plants were Y2k ready, while 35 were not. The 35 plants were scheduled to be ready by December 1999; no reports of requests for funding as of 1 August|
|20 August 1999||A severe shortage of paper is announced. Suppliers will not be able to stock retail stores with paper products for upcoming academic school year, due to massive purchase by businesses and Government agencies as they establish a paper trail for Y2k contingency.||David Myers||16 October 1998||Wrong|
|22 August 1999||Following the Global Positioning System's Week Counter Rollover to zero from 1023 in the wee hours of Aug 21, all long distance telephonic circuits start degrading in performance. This is due to the use of GPS for exact timing of signal coordination between microwave towers. JB Hunt and other national trucking companies start losing coordination due to heavy dependence on GPS for long haul truck routing and tracking.||Chuck Harvey||10 February 1999||Wrong|
|22 August 1999||No detectable power system problems attributable to GPS rollover.||Stephen Goldstein||9 July 1999||Correct|
|29 August 1999||Food riots will necessitate calling out the army.||Stephen Wiliamson||18 March 1999||Wrong|
|August 1999||Major banks and other large companies begin to bring out T.V. and newspaper commercials stating that they are Y2K compliant in an effort to stem public mistrust.||Anonymous||13 December 1998||Correct:
Apple ran a commercial
during the Superbowl, 31 January 1999, touting
their Y2k compliance.
Wachovia Bank began a newspaper advertising campaign in early July 1999.
|August 1999||Y2k preparedness goes commercial with major retailers (Wal-mart, K-Mart, Target) advertising items like batteries, flashlights, and candles as Y2k Preparedness Supplies in their newspaper ads and in-store displays.||Anonymous||12 March 1999||Correct: On 1 May 1999 the generators on sale at Home Depot in Emeryville, California had a very large Y2K sign suspended above them.|
|August 1999||At least three prominent csy2k posters who have in the past predicted TEOTAWKI before 1 January 2000, have now moved their dates to right after 1 January 2000 or a few months after 1 January 2000, or have moderated their predictions to, e.g. deep recession.||Terry||19 March 1999||Mostly Wrong: Although talk of TEOTWAKI has diminished I cannot identify three such posters. In retrospect, I should not have accepted this prediction. I originally had this as a No Call, but Terry has contacted me and suggested changing it to Mostly Wrong.|
|August 1999||Healthcare is identified as the #1 industry at risk by Gartner Group or the Federal Government, banking not in the top 10.||Joseph E. McIsaac||30 March 1999||
Various August AP and Reuters reports quote Gov't officials as
saying that Healthcare computer systems will be the last
to be fixed (5 August, 26 August).
Also FDIC announced 99% compliance in banking on 2 August 1999.
|9 September 1999||The second most publicized "special date" hits. Some IT people lose sleep, no effects significant enough to be noted in the media.||Steven Burkett||31 May 1998||Correct|
|9 September 1999||Massive computer failures worldwide. At least 20 states lose electric power. Massive food shortages occur and bank runs force many financial institutions into failure. In the U.S. there is a Coup and the president is forcibly removed from office. This stems into worldwide economic crashes. Rioting begins in earnest in most cities and some small towns. This is 'fueled' by horrid live coverage of a passenger jet liner crashing into a major metropolitan area. Later in the day, things get a little better. But the new president declares nationwide martial law in desperate hope of quelling further unrest.||Flak||25 July 1999||Wrong|
|22 September 1999||100 days till Y2k. The start of the Y2k Cultural Revolution. This week will mark the beginning of the major psychological manifestations of the new millenarianism. Y2k stories on the front page of major newspapers every day starting on this date.||Bradley K. Sherman||21 February 1999||Mostly Wrong: There is a lot of Y2k coverage, but not nearly as much as I imagined.|
|September 1999||Minor 'save the planet' groups will picket some federal offices; thereby gaining media on-air time for their causes, while other, larger, groups of fanatics will storm corporate office buildings demanding total solutions. False propaganda information is the rule with these larger groups.||Chuck Leazott||25 February 1999||Mostly Wrong: Environmentalists and arms control activists did propose a 48-hour atomic holiday with nuclear reactors shut down and nuclear missles de-alerted (Reuters 16 September).|
|1 October 1999||Beginning of Federal Fiscal Year. Negative effect on Treasury and other Federal Agencies. [n.b. Zorger predicted this for 1 September, but I have corrected to actual US Fiscal Year. --bks]||Myron Zorger||18 May 1998||Wrong: A couple of minor problems were reported to have occurred and been fixed. No significant stories as of 4 October.|
|October 1999||Bulk and non-perishable foods, camping supplies, solar equipment and winter accessories prices so high that only the rich can afford them. Panic sets in setting stage for national emergency.||Brett||19 May 1998||Wrong: To the contrary, there are reports of decreasing sales at the merchants catering to Y2k stockpiling needs.|
|October 1999||Due to uncertainty about readiness of air transport infrastructure, North American airlines cancel all flights between 30 Dec 1999 and 03 Jan 2000 with flights after that date sold subject to possible cancellation. World airlines follow suit.||Steve||30 September 1998||Mostly Wrong: Some (non-US) Airlines have cancelled rollover flights, and some particular US flights have been cancelled, but as of 30 October it is still possible to purchase tickets to fly from LAX to JFK leaving 31 Dec and arriving 1 Jan.|
|October 1999||I predict a worldwide honey shortage, due to huge demand of honey by Y2K stockpilers,(beekeepers report that their businesses have increased tenfold) coupled with the recent dramatic decrease in the world's bee population, which scientists are tentatively linking to global warming, but also could be caused by a virus in the population. In any case, by October 1999, I predict honey prices to have least quadrupled. [To be rated on the Y2k aspect, only --bks]||anonymous||2 July 1999||Wrong|
|October 1999||Due to the increase of media attention on possible power outages and food shortages, there is a dramatic increase in the sale of firearms and ammunition as people prepare to defend themselves from potential looting and riots.||Dave||17 July 1999||Mostly Wrong: Some reports of increased sales, but whether this is due to Y2k or the onset of new gun control laws is not clear and the reports are peculiar to certain locales.|
|Late October 1999||Owners of Web sites and discussion lists that list warnings of Y2K problems, and also link to and carry reports of Y2K failures, will find their accounts terminated. For the most part, reasons will be vague, but in some countries national security incitement and other similar reasons will be given. In some cases, their Web Pages will simply be hacked to death.||Anonymous||6 August 1999||
To the contrary, certain well-known Y2k sites are
shutting themselves down,
and moving on to other interests. For example:
Rick Cowles' www.euy2k.com and
Ed Yourdon's site has diminished Y2k coverage (and on 30 October had not been updated in nearly a month) and
Jim Lord appears to be moving from Y2k to Liberty issues.
|November 1999||The first conspiracy to commit fraud, embezzlement, or theft following Y2k is uncovered by law enforcement. This will be some type of white-collar scheme and will get wide media coverage.||Anonymous||21 January 1998||Close: Reports of bogus bank examiners calling consumers to transfer accounts for Y2k requirements were reported in David Farber's Interesting People mailing list 8 March 1999. Also: Consumers Warned on Y2K Scams , A.P. 13 April 1999.|
|November 1999||Radical religious leaders and cult members begin making media headlines. They claim "end of time" referred to in Bible is actually reference to Y2K. Many less stable adherents believe 1/1/2000 to be THE day of "judgement". Assorted mass suicides of religious cults world wide.||waker||18 June 1998||Wrong: There are some reports of problems in Jerusalem, but certainly not a world-wide phenomenon.|
Media Hype and "melinia fever" will cause a run on one or
more major NY Banks, media coverage of this event will
bring on widespread runs on banks nationwide.
President will declare national emergency. Y2K will not matter, the lemming like rush to prevent problems will cause worse problems.
|anonymous Texan||16 July 1998||Wrong|
|November 1999||Movies using Y2K as their central theme , that have a planned roll-out in the fall of 1999, are cancelled/censored before the public ever gets a chance to see them. The news of this sparks 1st amendment protests and civil unrest.||Daeron Meyer||23 November 1998||Close:
The Boston Globe reported on 25 July 1999
that the Warner Bros. movie Y2K had been cancelled.
[Thanks to J. Lakey for the research.]
Y2K an NBC made for TV movie aired with heavy disclaimers including some on-screen during the movie and some resistance from Utility and Banking groups.
|November 1999||Two Y2K movies due for release in November 1999 will usher in real-life panic.||Aaron Armstrong||1 July 1999||Wrong: The only Y2k movie is apparently NBC's Y2K which aired 21 Nov 99, but did not trigger a panic.|
|November 1999||President issues a price-freeze to curb profiteering from Y2K.||Bill Fahle||20 January 1999||Wrong: Though I have been told that California has enacted Y2k anti-gouging legislation. (Will add a link if I find one.)|
|November 1999||The anti-christ will present himself as a major player in the computer software/hardware industry. He will present a new form of currency based on credit cards embedded with chips that are numbered starting with the number 1. There will be a set amount designated for each card in the amount of 10,000 credits which will be used purchasing goods of every kind, including homes, food, and business stock. This will be posed as a temporary fix until the normal systems are put back in place. This will cause a mass panic for the getting of these cards, which will start civil wars all over the planet.||Anonymous||23 February 1999||Wrong: Aging Arnold Schwarzenegger defeated any hope of the Anti-Christ showing up when End of Days was universally panned by the film critics.|
|November 1999||Law enforcement investigates gangs, racist groups, and militia groups supposedly planning to use the Y2k crisis as a cover for robberies and other crimes.||Steven Savage||6 April 1999||
The U.S. government is
preparing for possible violence from cults, guerrillas, hate groups and
end-of-world-fearing zealots as 2000 approaches. ...
Jim Wolf, Reuters, 31 August 1999
|November 1999||Someone gets shot by an overly zealous Y2K survivalist defending their 'stash'.||Joseph E. McIsaac||15 April 1999||Wrong|
|November 1999||Bad or unusual weather, combined with natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, etc.) promote the idea in the West that these are the End Times. Churchs fill up, televangelists make out like bandits, and the shadow of Y2K is cast over the holiday season.||Anonymous||11 June 1999||Mostly Wrong: The shadow is there, but not the supernatural accouterments.|
There will be an official White House announcement of the
cancellation of the 31 December 1999 Millennial New Year's Eve
celebration to be held in Washington, D.C.
(Reporters from The Washington Times will
publish underlying reasons in a series, 16-30 December 1999.)
An airline will suspend all flights to Reagan National by Nov. 28, attributed to negotiations or labor problems. (The Washington Times will break the story crediting the influence of the Y2K Advisory Committee Director by 16 December.)
|jonatha||24 August 1999||Wrong and Wrong|
|November 1999||Three nuclear power plants put under protective custody by the NRC.||KJ Ayau||20 September 1999||Wrong: On 17 November the NRC told the Senate that all was well with nuclear power plants.|
|1 December 1999||No bank runs in the USA, and no nationwide martial law.||Arnold Trembley||12 July 1999||Correct: There are mass arrests in Seattle 1 December due to demonstrations against the WTO, but I don't think that qualifies as nationwide martial law.|
|15 December 1999||Hyperinflation on grocery store prices causes riots.||Paula Morrow||29 November 1999||Wrong|
|Mid-December 1999||One of the articulate doomers will say that he has been kidding us along the whole time. Using some of his most outrageous Usenet postings as proof, he will say that nobody with an ounce of sense could possibly have taken him seriously.||js||12 October 1999||Partially Correct: Tim May|
|December 1999||Paul Milne appears on a major network news magazine such as Dateline||Jeff Schwartz||18 May 1998||Close: Paul Milne appeared on the Mary Tillotson show (CNN) 15 October 1998, 11:30 AM ET|
|December 1999||Gary North takes credit for making Y2K the non-issue that it looks to be in the United States.||Joseph E. McIsaac||30 March 1999||Wrong|
|December 1999||A few deaths are reported due to panic departure from certain areas under icy conditions. At least one fatal accident results from panic departure from the vicinity of a nuclear power plant by people fearing a meltdown.||Bob McClenon||17 April 1999||Wrong|
|December 1999||After central banks issue large amounts of extra cash to guard against Y2K panic (which probably doesn't happen) and banking system failures (which certainly don't happen) there is an upsurge in armed robberies taking advantage of overstretched armoured car companies etc.||John Quiggin||21 April 1999||Wrong|
|December 1999||DJIA drops to appr. 8500 due to sell-off of mutual fund shares being converted into cash or gold. S&P average drops 15%. Price of gold rises to $460 per ounce troy due to liquidation of shares into gold. Fed raises discount rate to 6.5% to offset inflationary effect of extra cash. Prime rate rises to 9.75%.||Bob McClenon||22 April 1999||Wrong|
|December 1999||Retail fuel supplies are noticably stretched as people fill up fuel tanks in anticipation.||Ian Hollingworth||26 August 1999||Almost Completely Wrong|
|December 1999||There will be a 30-40% decrease in travel starting in December with people cancelling plans to travel over the holidays and rollover.||KJ Ayau||20 September 1999||Correct: Not sure about the percentages, but travel is definitely down, and way down over expectations.|
Mass suicides (dozens or scores) among cult members.
Murder/suicides of families with fathers who don't want to see my kids go through hell.
|KJ Ayau||20 September 1999||Wrong|
|30 December 1999||Stores report shortages (out of stock on items); attributed to Y2K stocking.||The Tyrant||1 December 1999||Wrong|
|30 December 1999||February Crude at $30/barrel or more; average unleaded costs $1.80/gal. at the pump; gas lines in some cities, but not a widespread problem. This is caused by pre-y2k stockpiling by corporations and individuals in anticipation of potential domestic refining or offshore production and transportation infrastructural failures post 12/31.||J. Baker||29 November 1999||Wrong|
|31 December 1999||California National Guard will be deployed near large cities.||Bob Benson||20 May 1998||Almost Correct: The National Guard has been mobilized. ABC reports, e.g., Los Angeles area police, fire and National Guard officials say they are ready for whatever may happen on New Year's Eve.|
|31 December 1999||No Y2k Immunity legislation for business will have been passed by the U.S. Government.||Steve Dover||2 March 1999||Wrong: Passed by Congress. Signed into law by the President July 1999.|
|31 December 1999||
Noon, Pacific Standard Time
No significant failures will occur in New Zealand and Australia. After Japan and China report in with no infrastructure problems, the Dow Jones, in a burst of irrational exuberance, will rise over 200 points. By noon the North American TV networks will report that the Y2K computer crisis is over. Either a TV reporter or an afternoon newspaper on the west coast or Hawaii will say: It was over before it began.
|Henry Ahlgrim||15 September 1999||Close Enough|
|When||Predicted Event||Who Predicted||When Predicted||Result|
Happy New Millennium!
The Predictions Page is Closed. Thanks for watching.